What happens if I overestimate income for tax credits and my state didn’t expand Medicaid?
I’m self-employed, live in Maine and need to have a minimum annual income of approximately $11,500 to qualify for Obamacare. What happens if I estimate and expect to make that much and receive the subsidies, but then don’t actually make that amount by the end of the year? Will the payback caps in place for people who UNDER estimate their income also apply to people who overestimated and then didn’t actually qualify for Obamacare?
If you estimated your income to qualify for subsidies, but didn't make enough, you don't owe back any money and can keep the tax credits you got in advance. You can learn more about repayment limits on advanced tax credits here.
As long as you are making a reasonable estimate of income you won't get in trouble for falling short.
If you make enough to claim tax credits (100% or more, and you overestimated then you claim the additional credits on form 8962). The question itself asks about Medicaid (i.e. falling below the 100% poverty level in an expansion state). Falling below 100% means you are not eligible for credits or repayment. Do check the above link about repayment limits in all cases.