What the Election Means for ObamaCare

ObamaCare’s fate is currently in the hands of the Supreme Court. If the law is struck down in court, it is then in the hands of Congress.

If it is struck down and Congress does nothing, over 20 million could lose coverage, including 11.4 million enrolled in the Marketplaces (many of which would lose assistance) and 12 million newly covered under Medicaid expansion.

Currently, it looks like Biden will win the Presidency, and the Democrats will keep a house majority while the Republicans keep the Senate majority.

This is a better outcome for opponents of the law than a blue wave where Democrats take the Senate, as that would have given Democrats everything they needed to reinstate Joe Biden’s version of Obamacare nicknamed BidenCare if ObamaCare was struck down.

Likewise, it is a better situation for proponents of the law than a Red wave where the law being struck down in Court would almost certainly lead to ObamaCare being gone forever and at best being replaced by some odds and ends by Republicans (see ObamaCare vs. TrumpCare for an idea of what that would have looked like).

In the current situation,  if things do play out the way they seem, it means that the house and Biden can push for an ObamaCare/BidenCare policy regardless of the outcome of the Court case, but they will get pushback from a Mitch McConnell-led GOP dominated Senate.

This means that the result is very uncertain both in the Supreme Court and in Congress. It could all come up to how unpopular it is for the GOP to block healthcare reform efforts in the result of the law being struck down in the Courts. We will keep you updated.