ObamaCare Subsidy Spending

ObamaCare’s Marketplace subsidies cost on average $3,5000 per enrollee with subsidies, while Medicaid and CHIP subsidies cost $4,500 on average. Those are 2015 estimates and the costs rise over time with the growth of healthcare. Luckily the ACA curbs healthcare spending costs.

Subsidy Spending in 2015 (From CBO Report January 2015)

The CBO projected the cost of coverage provisions to be $76 billion (but this includes $47 billion for Medicaid and CHIP and $2 billion in small business tax credits).

Marketplace subsidies alone are $45 billion gross and $32 billion net (pg 122) as estimated by the CBO in January 2015. They were assuming 12 million would enroll, while 9 million would get subsidies. This estimate seems pretty accurate based on what we know as March 2015.

CBO Estimate of total spending on coverage provisions (net counting costs of Medicaid, CHIP and small business tax credits) versus all Marketplace enrollees (but not counting Medicaid and employees of small businesses for some odd reason, probably just to ensure a big number): 76,000,000,000  ÷ 12,000,000 = $6,333 per enrollee in general (including 3 million without subsidies)

CBO Estimate of actual GROSS costs divided by those who actually got subsidies: 45,000,000,000  ÷ 9,000,000 = $5,000 per enrollee who got subsidies

CBO Estimate of actual NET costs divided by those who actually got subsidies: 32,000,000,000 ÷ 9,000,000 = $3,555 per enrollee who got subsidies

The CBO also estimated that 10 million would enroll in Medicaid and CHIP with 8 million (pg 121) enrolling due to expansion who would not have had coverage before.

CBO Estimate of Medicaid and CHIP GROSS costs per enrollee: 47,000,000,000 ÷ 10,000,000 = $4,700 per Medicaid or CHIP enrolleee