Although a 2017 Gallup poll showed a rise in the uninsured rate under Trump, 2017 data from the Census Bureau shows there has been no significant change in the uninsured rate since 2016. We don’t have data for 2018 yet.
It could be that when we look at 2018 data, or perhaps data for 2019 and beyond, that we see the uninsured rate rising due to changes to the ACA (for example reducing the fee for not having coverage to $0 under Trump). Likewise, it could be that we see a drop in the uninsured rate, perhaps due to expanding short term plans without repealing the ACA.
It is impossible to know the future (and we don’t have that data yet), but for 2017, according to Census data published in 2018, there wasn’t a statistically meaningful change in total uninsured in 2017 compared to 2016 when a record low uninsured rate was hit.
The Census data shows that 91.2% of all demographics are insured in 2017, i.e. it shows a 8.8% uninsured rate for all demographics in 2017.
Compare that to Q1 2016, and you can see there wasn’t much of a change from 2016 to the end of 2017:
- Total Uninsured Rate: 8.6%
- 18-64 Only: 11.9%
- 0-17 Only: 5.0%
- Over 65: Not typically counted in ACA-related studies, it’s near 100% according to this study (but not exactly 100%).